Yesterday we went 2-1 for +.5 units. In the past 16 days, we have only had 4 losing days.
Todays NBA card:
- Atlanta/Detroit over 230 (1 unit)
- Philadelphia -2 (.5 units)
- Minnesota-9 (1 unit)
- Minnesota over 122.5 Team Total (1.75 units)
- San Antonio/Minnesota over 235 (.75 units)
- Miami ml (-140) 1 unit
Atlanta vs Detroit
The total for this game makes no sense. Yes, Detroit has hit the over 4/5 games(pre-season included). But looking at their past 10 h2h meetings and each teams games thus far this season, the 230 point total is not warranted and absurd. And the public will be betting under throughout the day. Which is why we are taking the over.
I cap sports not only based on data and trends. But, I incorporate psychological and human patterns within my capping. And this game is a perfect example. Books know a 230 total will instinctively lure people to the under. Its brilliant on their part.
Pick: over 230
Philly vs Toronto
This is just not a good spot for the Raps. They are coming back home from a three game road trip and will be missing Barnes for this game. Embid should be able to dominate the interior against a team that doesn’t quite have the right personnel to guard him in the paint or interior.
Pick: Philly -2
San Antonio vs Minnesota
I had this game marked on my calendar Monday night. These two teams played on Monday. And the Timberwolves got embarrassed in front of their home crowd. They play again two nights later in Minnesota.
In the 2020-2021 shortened season, the NBA began scheduling games where the same teams play each other consecutively. Since last year was the first full season this was part of the schedule, I did not incorporate it into my capping. However, this year it’s something to consider. And this is how I will be playing these situations
Similar to a baseball double header… if team A covers game 1, I will play team B to cover game 2.
We saw the Raptors a few nights ago beat Miami in game #2 after losing game #1.
Minnesota should absolutely destroy San Antonio. The Timberwolves not only lost straight up as a 9 point fav, but in the third quarter they scored a paltry 14 points.
Pick: Minnesota-9, Minnesota over 122.5 Team Total, over 235
Miami vs Portland
We are seeing legit reverse line movement in this game. Portland, the darlings of the early NBA season are getting majority of the bets, but the the line has moved Miami-1 to -2.5. Why is the 4-0 Trailblazers an underdog at home against the 1-3 Heat? Master manipulation by the books. This is the type of shit that makes capping so much fun!
Pick: Miami moneyline